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Macroeconomic Research

The main activities

The main direction of the research activity is expert and analytical support in programs and strategies preparation, as well as macroeconomic forecasts for Kazakhstan medium and long term development.

The Economic Research Institute conducts research on development problems of the national economy, economies of systemically important countries, countries - trade partners of Kazakhstan with an assessment and forecast of their impact on Kazakhstan.

Thanks to development and improvement of a set of tools for macroeconomic modeling and forecasting, the experts provide evidence-based decisions / recommendations / suggestions in the field of macroeconomic policy.
Studies are also being carried out on the problems of income policy, employment, tax policy, project management, inclusive development, export policy, and the country

Our advantages

The Economic Research Institute has developed and applies a set of tools for macroeconomic modeling and forecasting for short, medium and long term periods:

• Intersectoral balance model (IOB);
• Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE);
• Regional model of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
• Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasting (DMP) Model
• Long-term demographic model of Kazakhstan;
• Medium-term quarterly macroeconomic model for forecasting the development of Kazakhstan;
• Composite leading indicator (SDI) for short-term forecasting.

The Institute employees have confirming certificates for development and updating of the above models.

This allows modeling connections of the country economy main macroeconomic indicators, both at the national and regional levels, and developing forecasts; timely and efficiently identify macroeconomic risks and the economy imbalances.
The results obtained according to scenario forecasts of the country macroeconomic development are used in the system of state planning and management. Thus, the results of macroeconomic modeling and forecasting formed the basis of target indicators and direct results indicators of such strategic documents as the Strategic Development Plan of Kazakhstan until 2025, the National Export Strategy of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2018-2022.

In addition, the Economic Research Institute, basing on the tools of macroeconomic modeling and forecasting, constantly makes calculations to assess the macroeconomic effects of the country socio-economic policies on the instructions of the Government, the Presidential Administration, the Ministry of National Economy and other government agencies.

We maintain expert relations with international institutions and large companies in the field of macroeconomic modeling and forecasting:
•    WB (World Bank)
•    ADB (Asian Development Bank)
•    IMF (International Monetary Fund)
•   Joint Vienna Institute (JVI, JVI) - conducting training for specialists from the public and private sectors of CEE, the Baltic countries and the Balkans, CIS countries, Asian countries with  transitional economies, etc .
•    Annual mission
•    ECE (Eurasian Economic Commission)
•   The employees are members of the Working Group ‘Macroeconomic Modeling and Forecasting’ in the areas of Short-term Forecasting, Medium-Term Forecasting and Long-Term Forecasting, Estimation of Mutual Impact and Integration Effects.
•    EDB (Eurasian Bank for Reconstruction and Development)
•    INP RAS (Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences)
•    HSE RF (Higher School of Economics)
•    McKinsey (International Consulting Company)
•    Focus Economics (International Consulting Company)
•    DIW ECON (German Consulting Company)
•    ECO (Economic Corporation Organization) and others.

Such contacts, within the framework of a professional expert community, make it possible to coordinate and improve the quality of the forecasting activities of the Economic Research Institute. There is also ongoing work to expand strategic partnerships and cooperation.

Currently, in this area the Economic Research Institute employs more than 10 scientists, including one doctor of economic sciences, two candidates of economic sciences, seven masters of sciences, graduates of Moscow State University, Nazarbayev University, KazNU, and foreign universities. Our experts underwent advanced training in various domestic and foreign research organizations and financial institutions, such as the IMF Joint Vienna Institute, Nazarbayev University, World Bank structures, the Higher School of Economics, etc.

Our projects

- Improving the tools of macroeconomic modeling and forecasting;
 - Development of the Concept of Kazakhstan joining the 30 developed countries of the world;
- Study of the fundamental factors and determinants of long-term economic growth and preparing of Kazakhstan's sustainable development macroeconomic forecast until 2050 in the context of the Foresight of the world economy and global markets, using the tools of general equilibrium models and intersectoral balance;
 - Socio-economic policy of Kazakhstan in conditions of the Common Economic Space;
- Study of Kazakhstan development current trends and the world economy, the global financial system, world commodity markets with identification of external risks and threats to Kazakhstan economy;
- Development of an operational short and medium-term macroeconomic model for forecasting development;
- Expert and analytical support for development of RK export potential stimulate program;
- Analytical support for RK social-economic development forecasting through the study of external and internal development conditions and improvement of modeling tools;
- Assessing the macroeconomic effects of IIT reform, determining the optimal level of tax burden on the payroll, as well as analyzing the effectiveness of local taxes, fees and fees, taking into account inter-budget relations;
- Preparing of measures to promote inclusive development of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
- Development of a methodology for assessing the macroeconomic effects of initiatives in the priority areas of Project Management;
 - Analytical support for development of RK social-economic development forecasting through the study of external and internal development conditions and improvement of modeling tools;
- Study of the impact of new global risks on the socio-economic development of Kazakhstan in the medium term, macroeconomic consequences forecasting variants, recommendations for adjusting economic policy;
 - Research and evaluation of the state and public spending effects on the factors of long-term economic growth of Kazakhstan using econometric models and the IOB model.

International projects

- A partnership in the field of knowledge between the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Economic Research Institute of Kazakhstan for joint contributing to the study on the topic: “Good Jobs for Inclusive Growth in Central and West Asia”, 2015-2017;
- Experts participation in the ‘Economic and technological cooperation in the context of the SES and Ukraine’, 2013, international research project of the Institute of Economic Forecasting (Russian Academy of Sciences);
- Experts participation in the international research project “Inequality and the Middle class in Kazakhstan” OECD’s Multidimensional Country Review of Kazakhstan.

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Saved: 10.08.2020





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