Budget Framework

29.10.2020

The Republican Budget Framework Parameters for 2020 have been updated on the basis of adjusted macroeconomic indicators, Kazakhstan Minister of National Economy Ruslan Dalenov said at the plenary session of Senate of the Parliament of Kazakhstan.

"Main factors for updating the Framework are the following: updated reporting data on GDP for 2019, operational data from the beginning of this year, adjustment of the production plan as well as a review of world oil prices. Thus, updated GDP for 2019 increased by KZT 0.9 trillion and amounted to KZT 69.5 trillion. This increased the base for calculating the Framework for the current year. Framework also takes into account the latest trends in the real sector, service sector, and oil price environment. The consensus forecast of international organizations for global economic growth this year is 5%, followed by growth in 2021. IFO estimate the real growth of Kazakhstan economy for 2020 from 2.3% to 2%, followed by steady positive growth from the next year. Taking into account current trends in economic sectors, we estimate that GDP growth in 2020 will be 2.1%", Dalenov said.

According to him, nominal GDP is estimated at KZT 69.8 trillion, which is KZT 102 billion higher than the one previously specified.  This is due to an increase in the 2019 baseline. Minister also said that the growth forecast for real economy sectors has been improved. Construction is projected to grow by 6.5%, agriculture by 4.9% and manufacturing by 3.7%.

The Head of Ministry also proposes to revise the forecast price of oil - to increase from USD 20 to USD 40 per barrel, taking into account the actual price. Average oil price was USD 42 per barrel in January-September. Taking into account the updated indicator, volume of oil production will be 85 million tons.

Exports of goods will increase to USD 45.5 billion, and imports of goods will amount to USD 33.8 billion. Thus, the positive trade balance is projected to increase by USD 3.2 billion to USD 11.7 billion.

According to R. Dalenov, the Republican budget revenues, excluding transfers, are estimated at KZT 6 539 billion in 2020. Guaranteed transfer from the National Fund remains unchanged and is kept in the amount of KZT 4 770 billion. Expenditures of the Republican budget are projected to amount to KZT 14 475 billion with an increase of KZT 205 billion relative to the approved indicator. The budget deficit remained at 3.5% of GDP.


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