Climatic Future of Kazakhstan

10.08.2021

Kazakhstan will be most affected by climate change: the level of "water stress" in the agricultural sector of the country is more than 80% (forecast of the World Bank)

In the fight against climate change, Kazakhstan needs to work on the country's transition to more resource-saving technologies and sustainable development, ERI expert believes.

Central Asia (including Kazakhstan) is particularly affected by climate change, which will worsen already complicated situation characterized by low precipitation, aridity, sharp fluctuations in weather conditions and uneven distribution of resources, said Yerlan Karimov, the expert of the Economic Research Institute JSC (ERI). 

According to the forecasts of the World Bank on the level of "water stress" in the agricultural sector, Kazakhstan will be most affected by climate change: the level of "water stress" in the agricultural sector of the country is more than 80%.

It is expected that in Kazakhstan, the average annual temperature will increase, and the total amount of precipitation will decrease due to climate change. As a result of raise of temperature, evaporation from the soil will increase, which will reduce the availability of water for plants and the groundwater level, and this, in turn, will increase the risk of drought in the country.

The increase in temperatures also affects the hydrological situation: warm air is able to retain more water vapor, which can lead to more intense downpours and an increased risk of flooding.

Kazakhstan needs to work on the country's transition to more resource-saving technologies and sustainable development (for example, such water-saving technologies as hydrogels, mulching and drip irrigation in agriculture), Yerlan Karimov believes.

He notes that farmers of Kazakhstan are already beginning to apply new irrigation systems. Thus, drip irrigation is used on 23 thousand hectares only in Zhambyl region.

The expert said that in a recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis provides a summary of the current climate state, including human impact, and a possible scenario for the climatic future of our planet.

In recent decades, there have been significant climate changes that have a global character. Climate change is taking place against the background of the rapid growth of the world's population, increase in demand for electricity and food, decrease in water resources, depletion of the earth's soil and urbanization development.

The events taking place in the world related to floods, fires, extreme heat, famine are the most convincing alarm signal for the world community for urgent transition of the economy to more sustainable development.

The report indicates that the only chance for humanity in the fight against climate change is to keep global warming at no more than 1.5°C and prevent a planetary catastrophe (hunger, migration, poverty and inequality). If global greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at a steady pace, the threshold of 1.5°C may be exceeded in the next decade.

Thus, over the past 30 years, the number of climate-related natural disasters has tripled. The UN estimates that 1.23 million people have died and 4.2 billion have been affected by droughts, floods and forest fires since 2000.   

"Report of the IPCC should encourage the governments of the world to act together and build a more sustainable and global economy to keep the temperature in the world within acceptable limits," Yerlan Karimov, the expert from ERI added.


 

Read also: Climate labeling of the budget: the experience of countries and opportunities for Kazakhstan 

 


 

 



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